MAHARAJA in Distress !!

12 hours that’s what it took. The fears that the Air India’s losses might spiral up to heights of 5000 crores have come true, the losses now stand at 7200 crores. But in no sooner time the media is out with its own “read to analyze articles”. The papers are full of why how Air India has been spiraling down from the past 2 years. Welcome change though the whole issue of Gayism and its pin up girl Celina Jaitley (who got some welcome headlines) was getting quite irritating.

Staying in aviation business is no child play JRD Tata was smart enough to understand that. Pioneering an industry has never been the forte of any government across nations and similar was the case for the airline industry. Many countries have national airlines that the government owns and operates. Fully private airlines are subject to a great deal of government regulation for economic, political, and safety concerns. Private players now rule this sector. But then the global recession and terrorism to a large extent have caused some worry to all carriers across the world. If we do go back to history air travel has survived largely through state support, this came through in way of equity or subsidies. Risky and costly is the best way to describe this industry but one has to outweigh the microeconomic losses by sighting higher growth due to global mobility. Over the years many countries have privatized their national airlines in order to improve profitability in the future and this has paid rich dividends. Innovations such as the low cost carriers have made their mark. Thus today many large airlines today are privately owned and are therefore governed by microeconomic principles in order to maximize shareholder profit.

But then as mentioned earlier this is a industry which has high operational costs. Aircraft financing by itself can be quite complex. Since this is an industry which gives high importance on safety newer planes with better safety features are being designed throughout and carriers must upgrade their fleet which is why they need to take major long-term fleet decisions with the goal of meeting the demands of their markets while producing a fleet that is relatively economical to operate and maintain. But then being capital intensive is not the only problem alone. Hedging oil and fuel prices also play a major role in the operational costs of an airline. Another important factor amidst all of this in view of the congestion apparent at many international airports, the ownership of slots at certain airports (the right to take-off or land an aircraft at a particular time of day or night) has become a significant tradable asset for many airlines. Clearly take-off slots at popular times of the day can be critical in attracting the more profitable business traveler to a given airline's flight and in establishing a competitive advantage against a competing airline.

One can wonder the reason for the discussion of the high level of economic forces but then most of the reasons cited out by the EXPERTS pertain to the above. The problems plaguing the national carrier are numerous but then ceding market share and bad routes top the reasons along with the merger which has lead it to so called spiral down. Bad routes cant be complained about especially when the airlines operates out of some of the most inhospitable places ie within India. Most private players have virtually no planes going to the north eastern parts of the country. Many small towns and cities are still yet to be served by private aircrafts. The fact that Air India operates out of such places goes down completely UN noticed when it comes to “Bad Route Planning”. Not to mention the cost of operating a Airport and the maintaining the ground crew at these places. But then the so called EXPERTS fly in or out only from the major towns. The market share has clearly dipped and the major cause has been the private players taking fair travel to newer heights. Most of Air India aircrafts were delivered back in the late 1980’s its surely could not compete the newer “Dream liners”. We did go ahead and order better planes but then in days of a recession delivery issues plagues everyone and thus the carrier had to Dry Lease planes. The merger surely did not go as planned but then merging 2 giants was not going to go happen without any glitches. The media ever so vocal about “Privatization” has been going on rattling about it. British Airways was privatized one would want to check out its state after the government gave up its control. The Rod Eddinton era resulted in a 50% slump in profits. Similar scenes were repeated post September 11^th when most of the private carriers faced problems of liquidity, high fuel prices and drastic reduction in travel. The players responded by drastically cutting workforce and selling of stakes to investment bankers (German subsidiary Deutsche BA was sold to investment group Intro Verwaltungsgesellschaft). Fresh equity was also raised to pay off debt.

Try doing rather mentioning of doing the above in India. What would result is a huge dharna outside parliament. How can even someone dream of throwing out people out of government organization. Try selling of stake the Left would probably leave no means unturned to see the government fall’s down. Raising an IPO in times of a volatile stock market is also not advisable. Someone needs to feel sorry for Praful Patel. Some complained that years of bad running have undone the carrier. But since the government took Air India over the whole accumulated losses were around 1000 crores. That figure in over 5 decades of existence is not bad. The carrier was hit hard by the recession and the fuel prices and probably the decision to buy planes did not come at the proper time. We talk aircrafts from Air India not flying and thus losing money. More than half of Singapore Airlines fleet was “Grounded” due to planes going half full. In days where airlines cant pay of fuel charges people are drying out loud that our planes did not fy hence did not make money.

As a national airline it was one of the best in Asia and the world. But then the recession took a toll on it as it did with many airlines globally. Alitalia have gone bankrupt and are shutting down operation. British Airways have reduced staff without giving salaries. But then being a PSU Air India cant resort to the above tactics. But then a restructure is required. The carrier is overstaffed and the professional standards for which it was known for have vanished. The future does look grave. But then necessary steps have to be taken. NPA’s need to be eased out and that would include staff also.

The MAHARAJA has been cordial enough time now it showed some resilient spirit.

The Dilemma named MMRCA

The IAF had projected a requirement for 126 aircraft's back in 2001when its strength was down to 39 squadrons. The initial requirements were for a 20 ton aircraft which was supposed to be filled with the Mirage 2000 whose capabilities had impressed the IAF during the Kargil War. However this fell through as the upcoming manufacture of the Dassault Rafale and lack of orders, the Mirage production lines were to be closed down.

Meanwhile delays with the LCA project and the unavailability of the jointly developed 5^Th generation aircraft not happening before 2020 made the IAF float a RFI in 2004.

Since then 5 years have passed and finally we are on the verge to finalize on the selected few. Below is an analysis on who might actually win.

The SUPER VIPER -

India as a matter of fact has never procured any defense equipment which has been fielded by Pakistan. Even during the 65 and 71 wars while Pakistan has the much famed Sabres and Star fighters and the Patton tanks India relied on tried and tested old Russian inventory. The thought has not been so for the past few years. In a bid to see that the current strength of the IAF does not fall beyond the 40 squadron mark in a time most of our neighbors have shown signs of hostility the government floated a requisition to draft in MRCA’s (Multi Role Combat Air crafts). Since then the Super Viper has been a common sight in the Bangalore Aero Show. Let’s face it 13 million flight hours, 4 lakhs combat hours over lakh combat missions if figures were a fact to choose a place the Viper would have ousted the best in the business. Add to that the fact that more than 20 nations has been using it since its inception in the 70’s. Even the IAF is well aware that the F 16 IN is probably the only aircraft which fits in perfectly in the qualitative requirement. As a icing on the cake the F 16 IN would come with an AESA radar which the IAF just adores. What also lies ahead if the IAF does go ahead with the F 16 is the option of getting the F 35’s at a later date. The us with the F 16 seems to have hit the IAF with an offer which is quite irresistible to resist. But then there are a few glitches. The F 16 is on the verge of being phased out and the USAF is not ordering any more of it. The F 35 shall now be the next move on for the USAF. Thus procuring a plane whose production line would be stopped hence would not go well for the IAF. And again there is the fact of India never procuring anything that has been fielded by Pakistan. The US knows the fact and has tried making the deal a tag “Sweeter” by saying India would have access to the F 35’s at a later date.

The GRIPEN -

Its been labeled as “The Independent Choice”. The tag has been well chosen. The MMRCA deal is pointed at changing a lot of things, the Gripen is the only underdog in the competition and choosing it would certainly be a choice aimed at being “Independent” and looking for “Change”. What many of us are unaware is of the fact that Gripen though being an underdog is an excellent aircraft and like the F 16 fits in quite well with the qualitative requirement the IAF had asked for. What also are crucial to Gripens state in the deal is its low turnaround and maintenance costs. The aircraft also adds a lot punch with its new systems and sensors. What also speaks volumes for the aircraft is the time it can be turned around on the ground a fact in which it beats all its competitors. But then would any government again take the risk of buying defence equipment from Sweden again. We are still shaken from the aftershocks of the Bofors deal. The 155 mm shell has scored a hit where we would least want it to.

The Future FULCRUM

No defense procurement in India looks complete without any tender from Russia. While previously we have quite successfully inducted the MIG 29’s and the Sukhoi’s looking to Russia this time around was not expected. But then Russia has always had that leverage with India and it wasn’t that hard to pitch in the MIG 35. The major fact that India may go with the Fulcrum is the commonality of operating it. The gurus already say that buying the MIG 35 would mean huge saving’s in infrastructural and training costs. The MIG 29 always had had good reviews from the IAF. While a few days back most of the Russian MIGS were grounded due to corrosion the IAF MIGS had no problems as such.

But still apart from what the Russians claim about the FULCRUM being a far superior than its 29 variants the IAF doest not seem convinced enough. Though Russia has been our most prominent defense equipment suppliers the relations have taken a beating over the years. Russians are not the best when it comes to after sales services, provision of spares to have been very hard to get. Also in a way what could go horribly wrong for the MIG 35 is the fact that the Russians themselves have not chosen the MIG and are filling up the spaces with the Shukois. Add to that the fact of the Russians overpricing deals midway much like the Groshkov deal could result in the IAF actually rejecting the FULCRUM.

The French Connection – RAFALE -

I cited at the beginning of my article the intention of the IAF to go for the MMRCA deal. Initially though the real intent was to procure just the Mirage 2000 an aircraft which the IAF hold in very great esteem. But as always Red Tap ism affects all decisions in India time ran out and Dassault closed all production lines for the Mirage and offered the Rafale instead. The Rafale along with the Gripen are the only 2 aircraft's in the competition with a refreshing newness to them. Neither of them comes with an old aircraft platform upgraded to meet the requirements of today’s modern warfare. The F 16 / 18 as well as the MIG 35 (evolving from the 29) are based on old platforms. The French has also cleverly pitched the Rafale as being the next logical step after the Mirage. The aircraft has proven battle worthy in the recent operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Rafale will also come with new, high-capability variants of MBDA missiles that the IAF has operated for decades, and places a lot of value on. There is a problem about the cost of the aircraft but with an added cost comes the reliability that the French have been extremely professional in all their defense deals till date with India. But the fact which could make the IAF think for the Rafale is its ability to deliver nuclear weapons. Add the the fact that it is a proven aircraft carrier based aircraft too operating from the Charles De Gaulle. But then price is always an issue when it comes to India and the Rafale is the most costliest among all present in the competition. Also like the Gripen and the Bofors the Rafale too might have a nemesis called the Scorpene.

The Super HORNET -

The Super Hornet is quite visibly Super considering its sheer size and payload capability. In what became a common picture of USA becoming a super power was Hornets taking off from the flight decks of its aircraft carriers to precision bomb targets mostly in the Gulf and of late in Afghanistan. It is considered to match the capabilities of the Super Viper if not be better than it and like the Rafale is a proven aircraft operating both from carriers as well as ground. What the Super Hornet also does is effectively reduce the pilot workload, its digital flight control systems are said to be better than any aircraft (within the same range) operating today. Being proven on aircraft carriers means that the aircraft can take off and land within a shortened runway, with full payload. The IAF too has been dealing with the Boeing Corp for quite some time now and are quite satisfied with the dealings. Then like the F 16 deal there is a benefit of getting the F 35’s at a later date. But then again the USAF has no more orders for the Hornets and is moving on the F 22 and F 35. The F 18 also is in much ways similar to the Sukhoi which the IAF already field. We would not want 2 aircraft's of the same capabilities running together the logistics effort would drive the IAF crazy. Also whatever Boeing might say the Hornet is effectively a carrier based aircraft it was developed with the mindset of having a multi role aircraft to be fielded from the sea. Whether it would be as effective on the ground is a big question.

So finally who would it be. Its boils down to the Hardened and Proven vs the Underdogs. I doubt the IAF would go with aircraft's whose production lines have almost been stopped which would rule out both the Super Viper and the Super Hornet. Though both are well proven the choice this time is to be “Independent”. The Fulcrum could win the deal but Russia comes with a long tail of delays, poor after sales service. Also the FULCRUM has not been chosen by the Russians themselves. This would leave the Gripen and the Rafale possibly the 2 underdogs in the competition. The IAF have had a long association with the French and over the years deals with them to acquire the Mirage 2000 and the Mysteres have gone on smoothly and professionally. But then as a nation we like the best bargain and the Gripen comes off as the best.

The Gripen seems to be the perfect complement to the inventory of aircraft we already have. As cited before operating the Hornet or the Rafale would mean the IAF have similar aircrafts operating thus creating a logistical challenge not to mention the fact the gap of having a MRCA would still remain. Also given the fact that the Gripen is the best price wise too would make it a certain forerunner to bag the deal. If it would it could edge out to the Rafale in point of the nuclear weapons capability. But the point is would the defense ministry have the “BALLS” to go for something Swedish. With France a nemesis named Scoepene exists too.

But then as stated earlier this time the deal is aimed at CHANGE and the decision for such should be a choice INDEPENDENT of political or any other kind of pressure.

Faulty System or a Demand & Supply Gap Mr. Sibal ?

Was watching “We The People´ on NDTV yesterday and the hot topic was Mr. Sibal’s proposed efforts towards a potential paradigm shift in the way our educational system would be run. Changes over the past 60 decades have been restricted to a few and the hordes of students who have passed/failed the system which had deep structural flaws had not yet complained. Now suddenly with Mr. Sibal’s announcement gave them a reason to do away with the whole system. No more board exams blues, no more parents haranguing about the fact that the next door neighbors kid is putting in more hours of study, no more reading those stupid guide books, nothing to do with all of what comes packaged as “The Class X Board’s”.

While expected the students to be cheering on Mr. Sibal what did come out was quite shocking. Most of them actually thought the Xth Boards was necessary. There were 2 ways out of this

1. The fact of what we call “Mogoj Dholai” in Bengali. Any kid in India would probably learn at a very early age (thanks to his parents) that a point in life would come when he would have to face a year without games, fun and play to endure on to a journey much harder than that taken by Frodo in LOTR. The journey being the dreaded Xth Boards. Dad would not do tours; Mom would cut down on kitty parties. After being told about this “Journey” all his/her life how else would you want a kid to act when asked whether he would want the Xth Boards.

2. Second would be the fact that kids today are much smarter than we would have been at that age, are thus in a better position to gauge their strengths via the Boards which then help them in choosing their stream. This would ensure that they would be studying what they like and not what “Mummy Daddy” likes.

But seriously the point would be much more than the above reasons. Here’s a man trying to make amends to a system which has been crying out from the very time it was set, for CHANGE. Lets face it the Class X board examinations an arcane make or break point in the system which at best “Chokes” students. Barrack Obama might praise the fact of our students getting higher grades than those in the western countries. But little does he know about this so called “Mug & Vomit” system. Mug the guide books and reproduce them with such high precision that would put a photocopier to shame. This sadly is the way the Xth boards are going on. I would have thought that the change cited by Mr. Sibal would be welcome.

But why is there such a clamor to do so well that nowadays getting even 80% is not enough. Back in times when I did my boards only a handful got above 90% marks (Back only till 2001 I aint that old). These days only a handful would get below 80%. No doubt kids these days are much smarter but the objective type questions coupled with the “Mugging & Vomiting” does help too. It’s a crime to get less than 80% these days. People would act as if India yet again lost to Bangladesh in a World Cup. But this time the students or the parents are not to blame. With the cut off percentages in the top colleges across the country beginning from 85 what would you expect?

The problem thus now it seems is not about the “Mugging & Vomiting” (never was I guess, we were quite content doing so, even I did). The problem is purely a demand and supply gap. While we have successfully rolled of the campaign to educate every Indian by having schools created we have failed to see that enough colleges are there to provide for the thousands of students who pass out of various schools across India. The seats offered by some of the top colleges in India are still in the same numbers which were offered in times of our Mum & Dad’s. There still are not good enough colleges which are being churned out. Colleges which were top 50 years back are still the top. Yes they do have the credibility to remain there but not being challenged enough too is a reason for them to be there. An India Today article published on the top colleges for India there hasn’t been a new entry in the list for the past 10 years. We are closing our eyes when it comes to this problem. Increase in seats and good colleges would do a great deal in improving this so called trauma called the “Boards”. Widening doors in trains does not mean it can take more people. We need more bogies newer trains too.

But I guess the system of having the optional exams is one which has not been tested yet and it would take time for people to come to terms with an idea which they probably would not have lived with in so many years past. The proposal to set up accreditation bodies for schools and higher educational institutions has merit in them too. We do need to improve the educational system and lifting the restrictions on private capital to be invested is a move in good stead as well. But the Demand & Supply gap must be plugged to ensure the trauma is kept at a minimum.

Hopefully Mr. Sibal has the agenda and the space to do so in his proposal.

Muffin Khao Khud Jaan Jao

The Muffin Effect – It was after the Iron Maiden show back in February that I decided that probably time again to continue blogging. I had started back in 2006, a few days into my MBA course I needed a channel to vent out my feelings and blogging seemed to be the way out. I had recently acquired a new laptop and while Floyd and Indian Ocean played at the background the lazy Sundays back in Manipal gave me enough time to blog.

Don’t quite remember when I stopped and why too, but when I did decide to continue thought of creating a new blog altogether.

I never quite gave much thought about the name. The current one was found while researching on the Sub Prime crisis and the current recession which has hit us hard. The Australians it seems are very anxious to know how would they avoid recession have turned to some unexpected strange economic indicators in order to find answers. They obviously don’t trust their official data and their so called “pundits” are turning to find signals right from Muffin sales to home brewing kits. What they did find was that muffin sales were holding up. Advocates of "the muffin effect," as it was dubbed by the Australian Financial Review recently, believe that when the economy slams into reverse, office commuters deny themselves their usual muffin with their morning cup of coffee. Being a person who did get hit by the recession and still move on the theory was quite fascinating to me, though it seemed quite strange that refusing one muffin would hardly cause the economy to turn around. The term however was “Catchy”. But I still don’t know what made me name my blog after it.

Fast forward to the present day I was chatting with my elder brother based in Baltimore. He was going through my blog and put in a query – “Why The Muffin Effect”. Though my “mates” from down under might think muffin effect a mean to track the recession their neighbors across the north pacific ocean think otherwise. In the US the muffin effect is used to describe the massive overhang of fat when ones jeans or pants are way too tight. This look resembles the way a muffin explodes over the edge of its little paper holder.

Recession to overhanging fat, quite a journey eh. Fat is required but overhanging fat coupled with way too tight jeans aren’t a pretty sight. The US created quite some amount of “excess fat” in terms of giving “subprime” and “high adjustable mortgage loans”. Trimming down on the “fat” was never considered and the “muffin effect” was getting uglier by the day. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms. However, once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices failed to go up as anticipated, and ARM interest rates reset higher. Foreclosures accelerated in the United States in late 2006 and triggered a global financial crisis through 2007 and 2008.

Suddenly it seems strange that the financial crisis has crept down to the farthest corners of the world by way of a “Muffin”. All of us who do cook would always peep through the oven glass to take a look at The Muffin rising slowly and tearing though the paper edges of its holder. The sight gives satisfaction to the efforts. But these days we would want our muffins to be trimmer. LEAN is the order of the day and the trick is to use lesser quantities of the mixture.

Still Proud To Be Wearing BLUE ??

Well so history does repeat itself and like Kapils Dhoni’s devils too fail to retain the cup which was so rightfully theirs the last time around. The Indian fan has started to sharpen its knife ready to slice open the team. Dhoni’s “Honeymoon it seems is over”, his luck seems to be faded out. India has been labeled as back home bullies and Blue suddenly is not a colour you would want to wear.

The postmortem/ analysis shall continue in papers and news channel alike and people like Sidhu and Saba Karim along with others who have faded away shall try scything the current team all for their 5 minutes of glory. What Went Wrong suddenly seems to have become the national pastime.

Take a few steps back now to 2007. The team is in turmoil, we were knocked out by Bangladesh. Dravid stepped down from captaincy and the fans had lost belief in the team. What Dhoni really did in 2007 was not just winning the cup it was more than that. He made the Indian fan believe that their team could achieve miracles. He gave the supporters a reason to not let go of their favorite team. What the team of 2007 did was give us hope that we would again rise as a cricketing superpower. It gave the country what it needed the most at that time – HOPE. Thanks to the hope and new found belief we found ourselves boasting that we could retain the cup. Never before (at least till the time I have followed Indian Cricket) have we been labeled tournament favorites so unanimously.

The belief led us to victories in Australia and allowed us to conquer New Zealand. Yes we did loose some matches but we were then winning too often to remember the lost ones. The “Honeymoon” was supposed to end in New Zealand and it continued. But then some say we won matches out of sheer luck.

It is not that I am not disappointed. I am. But the main reason to that was not because we just hoped we could win this time. We believed that we would win. This was never quite found in the Indian fan ever before. Believing – it takes a great deal to make someone believe in you. It is something not just done by “LUCK”, “Having a Honeymoon period” or “Being Arrogant”. It’s taken us 2 years to believe in out team and we can’t just let it die off due a single dent to that belief.

The team gave us hope when we as supporter needed it the most and now it is our turn to show them the support in times when they need it the most. Last time around we jammed the road to get the glimpse of our hero’s, lets not degrade the act by burning effigies this time.

So, still proud to be wearing blue?

I Am.

Jaane De to Aane De

So it has already been 2 years? The memories of celebration are still fresh. I still remember my brother and myself along with a few friends standing on a table in a jam packed food court near the university building in Manipal. There were at least 2000 people packed in the tiny place where not even 150 could fit in. I remember how we cheered every ball bowled and also remember the eerie silence when Misbah lofted the ball up and the sensation 10 seconds later that we had won. 24^th September, the win could not have come at a better time. Next day was my birthday and in my 24 years of existence that was the best gift I ever got.

But since Dhoni’s Devils, (If we may call them) have won more laurels. Winning in Australia, flattening them at home conquering New Zealand and one would be thinking if the above memories be acquiring a little sepia edge to them. But them why do we remember every moment of that game? In today’s generation 2 years is a long time almost a million miles away. But then one should know the enormity of however improbable that moment of 24^th September 2007 was. There was no huge build up to it. T 20 was a format well taken only in England. India had played just one official T 20 match before the tournament started. Given to that we had just been knocked out of the World Cup by Bangladesh and we boasted a team without any of our heavyweights. No one would have given India a chance to make it to the super eight leave alone the fact of winning it.

But then the as the tournament rolled on a couple of wins had materialized. Wins – they were as hard to find as trying to find melody in a Himesh Reshmiya song. But much to everyone’s astonishments the wins kept coming. Broad was cluttered and Pollock breached and the fan in India tried to make out a case for India to qualify for the Finals. In between classes and lunch breaks even we were thinking could we brush off Australia. I remember asking a friend of mine about India’s chances to go to the finals, Finals HAH !! His expression was as if someone suggested the left might go along with the nuclear deal.

But then Yuvraj struck again and the Elephant danced. The Kangaroos were squashed and the mouthwatering conquest of an India Pakistan final lay ahead. The highs and the lows were greater than the plummeting of Satyams share price but I guess the match was India’s from the very start. Joginder Sharma became a star and as Misbah broke down on the pitch Sreesanth looked in a mood to run down to Kerala. Chak De was the flavor of the day and I guess the whole of India were moving to the grooves of Yuvraj and Bajji who had made the stadium their personal Dance Floor.

In the month that followed the match was played on ESPNSTAR everyday. The victory parade was stalled as India came down to the streets to see the “Dhoni’s Devils”. Soon rewards were being announced with the kind of fanfare that suggested we had gone back to 1947.

2 years later as we go to defend the cup we have pockets of affluence and enterprise. They say the more you sweat in peace the less you bleed in war. Lalit Modi gave us enough reasons to sweat in peace and now that the war is impending it is time we sound our loudest battle cry.

One might wonder though we had nothing of the above when we won last year. What we had was optimism. We are more than optimistic this time. Wherein 2007 we would have said “Jaane De” we now cry out “Aane De”.

So as we look forward to see Dhoni’s Devil’s retaining the cup let us all remember the moment of that fateful day in JoBurg which made us believe in out team again, try telling me all the changes since there has been a better moment in Indian cricket.

Thy Neighbors

The recent bomb blast in Lahore has set alarm bells ringing, in a message that proves the recognition that should Pakistan go under, the consequences for India would be catastrophic. Thus the so called message of a “Joint Effort” to save Pakistan shows the urgency from India’s side.

Whether they like it or not Pakistan needs immediate help in order to restore itself. The threat of the northern frontier has come down to the streets of Lahore by way of bombs. The insurgents have also stated their intention to carry the message of the threat into the major cities. An undeclared state of civil war has already gripped the country.

The major point now is who would be ready to save Pakistan. Over the years Islamabad have turned to the US more than often and by now would have realized that Washington is more a problem than a solution. The US from the very days of having a relationship with Pakistan was more interested to use Pakistan as a market for selling its arms. Even now the US provides Military Finance Aid to Pakistan in amounts of 1.9 Billion dollars, the major chunk of it however goes back to US as money paid to arms sale. Over the years and till date most of it has been done to cope with the threat factor from India. Even in the early days of 65 and 71 wars, Pakistan always had a better equipped Army and Air force. While the Army boasted of Sherman Tanks the Air Force had the much more superior Sabres and the Star fighters. These we first rate strike options and were used well against the aging Canberra and Hunters fielded by the IAF. Though the IAF;s small but very maneuverable GNATS shot down many a Sabre the PAF’s faith in US fighters were not marred by any means. While the IAF battled over how to replace its fleet of Mig 21’s the PAF got the spanking new F 16’s. But on the turn into the new century things have not been as it has prevailed over the years. China has now taken over the US as Pakistan’s major arms supplier. The Chengdu J 10 would take over the F 16’s at a later date, the Falcon getting a new lease of life after going through a refit phase. Ukrainian T 80 form the backbone of Pakistan’s armored division.

But still in spite of China taking over US got orders in excess of 5 billion dollars from Pakistan as defense requirements. With specific intent on battling the Taliban Islamabad bought 8 P 3C Orion patrol aircrafts and has also placed orders for anti armor missiles.

Besides buying more than 5,600 military radio sets worth $163 million, Pakistan bought six AN/TPS-77 surveillance radars worth $100 million and six C-130E transport aircraft and their refurbishment worth $76 million. Under the Excess Defense Articles (EDA), it was granted 20 AH-1F Cobra attack helicopters. All of the above has been acquired with a specific requirement of dealing with the Taliban.

For our own interest and safety India needs to see that a civilian government is set up. This however would have to get the support of the other nations in order to see it is not just another frugal government which would die down on the hands of the rising wave of terror, which if kept unchecked would sweep across the subcontinent. Any kind of military action to achieve the above goal can be counted out as this must be down purely on basis diplomatic initiatives. What we need to do is to forget the years of bitter rivalry and offer our help to a beleaguered Pakistan. It is time we the largest democracy in the world took a brave step forward and ensure terror free democratic Pakistan. It is time we act as morale boosters for our neighbors when they need it the most. This boost could easily be the difference in the governments formed in the past and the one than would be formed now. This measure if taken could easily be seen as a symbolic victory of democracy against terror.

The US interests in Pakistan clearly is not clear to put it in short. They are the ones who have driven out Taliban, where do they go – Pakistan. The main aim of the US is clearly to shut out the Taliban. All the aid into Pakistan and providing of marines to fight the insurgents show that the US wants to tighten the noose on Taliban and counter them from 2 fronts. They would send drones into the NWF and fire missiles and then demand Pakistan to send its troops to clear the so called area. I guess this time around they don’t want their hands to get dirty. Poor Pakistan has no other choice but to comply with what the US says and also bow to the other superpowers. We too have been acquisitive and have whined like babies whenever the issue of terror and Pakistan has come up.

What Pakistan needs is a “Shepherd” who would tend to his flock but in times of need drive out the wolves. US is in no mood to “tend the flock” but act as self styled hunters offering help to many like Pakistan who have problems with wolves. A joint effort is seriously needed. India can certainly would have to play a large part in order to see a civilian democratic government is formed which would “tend to its flock”, the US is always at hand to drive the wolves away. But given a few years of a stable government and prosperity I am sure the offers of the US would no longer be required.