Muffin Khao Khud Jaan Jao

The Muffin Effect – It was after the Iron Maiden show back in February that I decided that probably time again to continue blogging. I had started back in 2006, a few days into my MBA course I needed a channel to vent out my feelings and blogging seemed to be the way out. I had recently acquired a new laptop and while Floyd and Indian Ocean played at the background the lazy Sundays back in Manipal gave me enough time to blog.

Don’t quite remember when I stopped and why too, but when I did decide to continue thought of creating a new blog altogether.

I never quite gave much thought about the name. The current one was found while researching on the Sub Prime crisis and the current recession which has hit us hard. The Australians it seems are very anxious to know how would they avoid recession have turned to some unexpected strange economic indicators in order to find answers. They obviously don’t trust their official data and their so called “pundits” are turning to find signals right from Muffin sales to home brewing kits. What they did find was that muffin sales were holding up. Advocates of "the muffin effect," as it was dubbed by the Australian Financial Review recently, believe that when the economy slams into reverse, office commuters deny themselves their usual muffin with their morning cup of coffee. Being a person who did get hit by the recession and still move on the theory was quite fascinating to me, though it seemed quite strange that refusing one muffin would hardly cause the economy to turn around. The term however was “Catchy”. But I still don’t know what made me name my blog after it.

Fast forward to the present day I was chatting with my elder brother based in Baltimore. He was going through my blog and put in a query – “Why The Muffin Effect”. Though my “mates” from down under might think muffin effect a mean to track the recession their neighbors across the north pacific ocean think otherwise. In the US the muffin effect is used to describe the massive overhang of fat when ones jeans or pants are way too tight. This look resembles the way a muffin explodes over the edge of its little paper holder.

Recession to overhanging fat, quite a journey eh. Fat is required but overhanging fat coupled with way too tight jeans aren’t a pretty sight. The US created quite some amount of “excess fat” in terms of giving “subprime” and “high adjustable mortgage loans”. Trimming down on the “fat” was never considered and the “muffin effect” was getting uglier by the day. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms. However, once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices failed to go up as anticipated, and ARM interest rates reset higher. Foreclosures accelerated in the United States in late 2006 and triggered a global financial crisis through 2007 and 2008.

Suddenly it seems strange that the financial crisis has crept down to the farthest corners of the world by way of a “Muffin”. All of us who do cook would always peep through the oven glass to take a look at The Muffin rising slowly and tearing though the paper edges of its holder. The sight gives satisfaction to the efforts. But these days we would want our muffins to be trimmer. LEAN is the order of the day and the trick is to use lesser quantities of the mixture.

Still Proud To Be Wearing BLUE ??

Well so history does repeat itself and like Kapils Dhoni’s devils too fail to retain the cup which was so rightfully theirs the last time around. The Indian fan has started to sharpen its knife ready to slice open the team. Dhoni’s “Honeymoon it seems is over”, his luck seems to be faded out. India has been labeled as back home bullies and Blue suddenly is not a colour you would want to wear.

The postmortem/ analysis shall continue in papers and news channel alike and people like Sidhu and Saba Karim along with others who have faded away shall try scything the current team all for their 5 minutes of glory. What Went Wrong suddenly seems to have become the national pastime.

Take a few steps back now to 2007. The team is in turmoil, we were knocked out by Bangladesh. Dravid stepped down from captaincy and the fans had lost belief in the team. What Dhoni really did in 2007 was not just winning the cup it was more than that. He made the Indian fan believe that their team could achieve miracles. He gave the supporters a reason to not let go of their favorite team. What the team of 2007 did was give us hope that we would again rise as a cricketing superpower. It gave the country what it needed the most at that time – HOPE. Thanks to the hope and new found belief we found ourselves boasting that we could retain the cup. Never before (at least till the time I have followed Indian Cricket) have we been labeled tournament favorites so unanimously.

The belief led us to victories in Australia and allowed us to conquer New Zealand. Yes we did loose some matches but we were then winning too often to remember the lost ones. The “Honeymoon” was supposed to end in New Zealand and it continued. But then some say we won matches out of sheer luck.

It is not that I am not disappointed. I am. But the main reason to that was not because we just hoped we could win this time. We believed that we would win. This was never quite found in the Indian fan ever before. Believing – it takes a great deal to make someone believe in you. It is something not just done by “LUCK”, “Having a Honeymoon period” or “Being Arrogant”. It’s taken us 2 years to believe in out team and we can’t just let it die off due a single dent to that belief.

The team gave us hope when we as supporter needed it the most and now it is our turn to show them the support in times when they need it the most. Last time around we jammed the road to get the glimpse of our hero’s, lets not degrade the act by burning effigies this time.

So, still proud to be wearing blue?

I Am.

Jaane De to Aane De

So it has already been 2 years? The memories of celebration are still fresh. I still remember my brother and myself along with a few friends standing on a table in a jam packed food court near the university building in Manipal. There were at least 2000 people packed in the tiny place where not even 150 could fit in. I remember how we cheered every ball bowled and also remember the eerie silence when Misbah lofted the ball up and the sensation 10 seconds later that we had won. 24^th September, the win could not have come at a better time. Next day was my birthday and in my 24 years of existence that was the best gift I ever got.

But since Dhoni’s Devils, (If we may call them) have won more laurels. Winning in Australia, flattening them at home conquering New Zealand and one would be thinking if the above memories be acquiring a little sepia edge to them. But them why do we remember every moment of that game? In today’s generation 2 years is a long time almost a million miles away. But then one should know the enormity of however improbable that moment of 24^th September 2007 was. There was no huge build up to it. T 20 was a format well taken only in England. India had played just one official T 20 match before the tournament started. Given to that we had just been knocked out of the World Cup by Bangladesh and we boasted a team without any of our heavyweights. No one would have given India a chance to make it to the super eight leave alone the fact of winning it.

But then the as the tournament rolled on a couple of wins had materialized. Wins – they were as hard to find as trying to find melody in a Himesh Reshmiya song. But much to everyone’s astonishments the wins kept coming. Broad was cluttered and Pollock breached and the fan in India tried to make out a case for India to qualify for the Finals. In between classes and lunch breaks even we were thinking could we brush off Australia. I remember asking a friend of mine about India’s chances to go to the finals, Finals HAH !! His expression was as if someone suggested the left might go along with the nuclear deal.

But then Yuvraj struck again and the Elephant danced. The Kangaroos were squashed and the mouthwatering conquest of an India Pakistan final lay ahead. The highs and the lows were greater than the plummeting of Satyams share price but I guess the match was India’s from the very start. Joginder Sharma became a star and as Misbah broke down on the pitch Sreesanth looked in a mood to run down to Kerala. Chak De was the flavor of the day and I guess the whole of India were moving to the grooves of Yuvraj and Bajji who had made the stadium their personal Dance Floor.

In the month that followed the match was played on ESPNSTAR everyday. The victory parade was stalled as India came down to the streets to see the “Dhoni’s Devils”. Soon rewards were being announced with the kind of fanfare that suggested we had gone back to 1947.

2 years later as we go to defend the cup we have pockets of affluence and enterprise. They say the more you sweat in peace the less you bleed in war. Lalit Modi gave us enough reasons to sweat in peace and now that the war is impending it is time we sound our loudest battle cry.

One might wonder though we had nothing of the above when we won last year. What we had was optimism. We are more than optimistic this time. Wherein 2007 we would have said “Jaane De” we now cry out “Aane De”.

So as we look forward to see Dhoni’s Devil’s retaining the cup let us all remember the moment of that fateful day in JoBurg which made us believe in out team again, try telling me all the changes since there has been a better moment in Indian cricket.

Thy Neighbors

The recent bomb blast in Lahore has set alarm bells ringing, in a message that proves the recognition that should Pakistan go under, the consequences for India would be catastrophic. Thus the so called message of a “Joint Effort” to save Pakistan shows the urgency from India’s side.

Whether they like it or not Pakistan needs immediate help in order to restore itself. The threat of the northern frontier has come down to the streets of Lahore by way of bombs. The insurgents have also stated their intention to carry the message of the threat into the major cities. An undeclared state of civil war has already gripped the country.

The major point now is who would be ready to save Pakistan. Over the years Islamabad have turned to the US more than often and by now would have realized that Washington is more a problem than a solution. The US from the very days of having a relationship with Pakistan was more interested to use Pakistan as a market for selling its arms. Even now the US provides Military Finance Aid to Pakistan in amounts of 1.9 Billion dollars, the major chunk of it however goes back to US as money paid to arms sale. Over the years and till date most of it has been done to cope with the threat factor from India. Even in the early days of 65 and 71 wars, Pakistan always had a better equipped Army and Air force. While the Army boasted of Sherman Tanks the Air Force had the much more superior Sabres and the Star fighters. These we first rate strike options and were used well against the aging Canberra and Hunters fielded by the IAF. Though the IAF;s small but very maneuverable GNATS shot down many a Sabre the PAF’s faith in US fighters were not marred by any means. While the IAF battled over how to replace its fleet of Mig 21’s the PAF got the spanking new F 16’s. But on the turn into the new century things have not been as it has prevailed over the years. China has now taken over the US as Pakistan’s major arms supplier. The Chengdu J 10 would take over the F 16’s at a later date, the Falcon getting a new lease of life after going through a refit phase. Ukrainian T 80 form the backbone of Pakistan’s armored division.

But still in spite of China taking over US got orders in excess of 5 billion dollars from Pakistan as defense requirements. With specific intent on battling the Taliban Islamabad bought 8 P 3C Orion patrol aircrafts and has also placed orders for anti armor missiles.

Besides buying more than 5,600 military radio sets worth $163 million, Pakistan bought six AN/TPS-77 surveillance radars worth $100 million and six C-130E transport aircraft and their refurbishment worth $76 million. Under the Excess Defense Articles (EDA), it was granted 20 AH-1F Cobra attack helicopters. All of the above has been acquired with a specific requirement of dealing with the Taliban.

For our own interest and safety India needs to see that a civilian government is set up. This however would have to get the support of the other nations in order to see it is not just another frugal government which would die down on the hands of the rising wave of terror, which if kept unchecked would sweep across the subcontinent. Any kind of military action to achieve the above goal can be counted out as this must be down purely on basis diplomatic initiatives. What we need to do is to forget the years of bitter rivalry and offer our help to a beleaguered Pakistan. It is time we the largest democracy in the world took a brave step forward and ensure terror free democratic Pakistan. It is time we act as morale boosters for our neighbors when they need it the most. This boost could easily be the difference in the governments formed in the past and the one than would be formed now. This measure if taken could easily be seen as a symbolic victory of democracy against terror.

The US interests in Pakistan clearly is not clear to put it in short. They are the ones who have driven out Taliban, where do they go – Pakistan. The main aim of the US is clearly to shut out the Taliban. All the aid into Pakistan and providing of marines to fight the insurgents show that the US wants to tighten the noose on Taliban and counter them from 2 fronts. They would send drones into the NWF and fire missiles and then demand Pakistan to send its troops to clear the so called area. I guess this time around they don’t want their hands to get dirty. Poor Pakistan has no other choice but to comply with what the US says and also bow to the other superpowers. We too have been acquisitive and have whined like babies whenever the issue of terror and Pakistan has come up.

What Pakistan needs is a “Shepherd” who would tend to his flock but in times of need drive out the wolves. US is in no mood to “tend the flock” but act as self styled hunters offering help to many like Pakistan who have problems with wolves. A joint effort is seriously needed. India can certainly would have to play a large part in order to see a civilian democratic government is formed which would “tend to its flock”, the US is always at hand to drive the wolves away. But given a few years of a stable government and prosperity I am sure the offers of the US would no longer be required.

Encountering the Dragon, whilst Modernizing without Russia.

 The MOD is finally planning to beef up is arms procurement and plans to spend over 20 billion dollars. Now that would mean more than twice then amount spent since the Kargil war, that too on an annual basis. According to sources we are set to overtake Britain in its defense budget spend within the next 5 years.

 These might be start figures to look at especially since the world seems to be still recovering from the sub prime crisis, there is a recession is place and cost of procurement is as high as ever. But then draw a picture around your mind and picturize, we have Pakistan to our left and Bangladesh to our right. Both have caused enough headaches in the past. But now a new threat has arrived and the DRAGON has made the ELEPHANT dance. China has risen form a cheap goods manufacturer to a military superpower within no time. The dragon has been sharpening its claws and made its intent quite clear by showing keen military interest in Tibet, especially the part’s where our borders meet. Large scale military movement has already started and the clearest picture of the threat comes from the Air Force who plans to have a Sukhoi 30 MKI base at Texpur. China has made its intentions quite clear at sea too planning to have 6 aircraft carriers and nuclear subs all done in a bid to become true blue water navy. It has already started phasing out its older fighter aircrafts for the newer JF 10’s.

 Given the threat around us the MOD has been quite right in upping the defense budgets spend. Our Air Force has aging fighter fleet, mostly a combination of Jaguars, Russian-made MiGs and French Mirage aircraft, and some are up for replacement. Further the IAF’s combat strength is further declining as older airplanes are being phased out. The most recent of them being the MIG 23 ground attack aircraft. From a commissioned strength of almost 40 squadrons we have fallen to 32. The strength is pushing the IAF to constantly keep a vigil on our airspaces.

 The answer to the above situation was to source Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). Except the Sukhoi 30 MKI which has been ordered separately each of the F 16, Euro fighter Typhoon, MIG 35, Saab Gripen, F 18 and the Rafale comes as the latest variant with the most advanced technology available. Lockheed Martin may be a bit ahead than the others in the race as buying from their stable would mean a bundled offer of receiving the much famed F 35. Also in a bid to reduce its dependence on Russia as well as the delays faced in several key acquisitions Moscow seems to be losing out on quite a huge share of the India’s defense procurement. This is clearly visible by the the deals for the Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and six refueling aircraft for the Air Force has gone to Israel for the AWACS and Airbus for the tankers.

 Now delays in deals were like a trademark for India. While in the past such delays were ignored, the bitter experience with the Admiral Gorshkov deal the MOD has reacted strongly. This clearly reflects the urgency sited by the MOD for modernization of the armed forces.

 The urgency is no wonder comes out of the rising fact of China as a military threat. But with increased threat from failing Pakistan a rebellious Bangladesh and an emerging China the urgency comes a little too late.

 To be fair to the MOD however the urgency shown has not been going on a shopping spree to buy arms. The deals have been made in accordance to our strategic requirements. The best deals which have finally been cracked have been the Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and the P8I maritime patrol aircraft the Indian Navy is on the verge of acquiring. The AWACS move represents a quantum jump in the IAF’s air superiority as it would enable the IAF to look deep into China and Pakistan.  The system can simultaneously track nearly 250 flying objects within a radius of 800 km and also has a 'look-down' capability. India is one of the few countries that has this facility. The Boeing P8I maritime patrol aircraft will give the navy a marked edge in the South East Asia region. India in a bid to better protect its airbases has signed a deal to acquire SPYDER air to air missiles with Israel. Spyder is a static low level, quick reaction missile (LLQRM) to neutralize hostile targets up to 15 km away, and at heights between 20 to 9000 meters.

 But the biggest deal of all was kept for the procurement of the Super Hercules C130J aircraft. . The C 130J model is the latest optimized version of the Hercules C 130, configured for landing and takeoff from a grassy, or dirt patches the size of a football field. It can climb and get out of a threat area faster after dropping or carrying troops or wounded personnel.

 Finally even though all the delays India cannot do without Russia and the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), being jointly developed by Russia and India, will fly by the end of 2009, with serial production starting by 2010. This and the Gorshkov deal along with the newer 30 more carrier borne Mig-29K (Fulcrum-D) fighters for the Indian Navy would give Moscow something to cheer about. They have already bagged quite a sum, double actually from the Gorshkov deal and the MIG came as the icing on the cake. But given the immaculate record of the MIG’s (only the 29’s not the 21’s) the deal is well made. The recent problem of corrosion at the junction of the MiG-29’s fuselage and vertical stabilizer has led to the crash of some Russian air force aircraft, and the entire Russian fleet had been grounded for some time. However, IAF MiG-29s seem unaffected.

 So given the circumstances we are reading ourselves to prove a match for any whether in air or sea but are our ground forces ready ?

 Next time more on the FAMED Arjun Fiasco. Time we see whether the student can oust the mentor. 

The BULL RUN

It’s a deal! Indian Premier League (IPL) once again has the world riveted with its deal-making panache. Cricket is just the icing. Booted from home and hooted out of the next choice, England and Wales, IPL Commissioner Lalit Kumar Modi has managed to rent South Africa for an undisclosed sum for the sequel to his blockbuster maiden show last year.

 59 days later however all the above was blown away. What stood out was the grim determination of 2 thirty plus individuals, determined to avenge the deepest of lows their teams had sunk last time. The finals wasn’t Bangalore vs Deccan, it was about Gilchrist and Kumble, it was about who had the more burning desire to win the match.

 Seems that I am overly praiseful ?? well then picturise this –

 

1. Kumble running wild after bowling Gilchrist. Surely that wasn’t as such a magic ball. A simple googly was all it was. So he bowls Gilly and as ever gracious as he is doesn’t rush as Gilly instead points out to the Challengers den – his motion telling it all.
2. last ball of the match Uthapa as useless as ever swats the ball to long leg and wild celebrations break free. But who is leading the pack – a man who has won 3 world cups, test championships surely he has had better moments than this. I personally have not seem Gilchrist so charged up over the last decade.

 

The IPL now has a aussie connection. Last year it was warne this time gilchrist.  The chargers were almost out of the game when Gilly invoked the bull in their emblem to successfully defend a modest total, beat Royal Challengers Bangalore and win a tournament they had ended up last in the previous season. They bowled with fire, fielded aggressively and sledged and hustled - almost literally - to victory in a final that twisted and turned and lived up to the occasion.

 As I watched Hayden, Warne and Gilly play in this years IPL it was quite easy to see why Australia was such a good team. Talent is something but there is a factor called desire. That is what the above 3 evoked this time especially warne last time around. The best examples of useless talent this time was Robin Utthapa. His trademark walk down and hit over mid on might work at cariappa grounds but not elsewhere.

 Hayden's contribution to Chennai Super Kings has been huge. He was both fluent as well as a bully on crease this time, that was the Hayden we knew. But it was his maturity that won the CSK fans which he showed even when he wasn’t timing the ball,

 Warney's brand of magic was seen in the game against Mumbai, which he said he played only because of his old rivalry with the Little Master, Sachin Tendulkar. Given his nickname of Hollywood, it came as no surprise that there was a happy ending to the story with the great leggie bamboozling the master with his wiles and trapping him in front. (I am an ardent Sachin fan – please do not get me wrong)

 

Many thought Gilly would be bogged down by the weight of captaincy this time. But he struck the ball with the same felicity as he did during his three world cup finals. There is still a lot of cheer left in him. This was clearly seen in his response to the way he lead Deccan’s charge.

 So what makes these Aussies click, I guess a lot of it has to do with the desire to win. Many cricket lovers would walk barefoot to see Sachin bat,.There is no better shot in world cricket than Sachins straight drive.

 But who would you call to save a match. The popular choice would be “The Iceman” Steve Waugh.

 Amidst all however, spare a thought for Anil Kumble. The image of the night came after the last delivery of the game.  Kumble slowly trudged away from Deccan's celebrations with his head bowed and crashed his bat against the ground. Once again, he took upon himself the tough job of bowling to Gilchrist and bowled him with a two-fingered googly. He managed his resources skillfully to restrict Deccan to a score he would have expected his batsmen to chase. Someone unfortunately had to lose.

 

 

Being Shinning to Being Sensible

Finally the verdict is out, Indian voters throw out 80% of all incumbent governments, especially in bad economic times. The global recession has hit India hard - industrial production slumped into negative growth, and exports were down 33% last month. Rural consumer prices are up almost 10%.

 

Given the above circumstances winning by the margin it did Congress probably would have surprised even a few of their own.  While the experts predicted a hung parliament with Mayawati having a king making role, the party held its cool. If we do go back the past 5 years they have remained in power one could see that the seeds of victory were sown long before.

 

One of the main reasons would be the rural prosperity which is basically 70% of our total population. BJP which made Industrial captains, trade unions and information technology may have hogged newspaper headlines, but these are barely visible to the rural millions.

 

Luck matters. The monsoons have been good for five years, helping agriculture average 4.5% growth, the fastest ever. This growth has been spread widely, and not limited to a few areas, as in the early Green Revolution. But I guess if Dhoni can win matches out of sheer luck Congress had its fair share this time around.

 

"A leader never defeats others.....He always wins or tries to win...." BJP's main campaign was to highlight the drawbacks of Congress. And this was visible in all of their campaigns, be it media, internet, public speeches, be it anywhere. Now that is the main drawback of a leader. One should always highlight his own strengths and support it with evidence. Had BJP kept quite when India faced the challenges and rather tried to bring the country to better shape, 2009 election outcome could have been different.

 

From Shining India to Sensible India, is one way of looking at these results. Clearly, the voter was in no mood to opt for either the Right or the Left. It was a clear mandate for continuity, for better or worse. Religion and caste came second and third, when everyone expected both to be the biggest issues. In a way they were - India voted against their exploitation by political parties who were trying their luck by playing those cards. The BJP got nuked! 

 

The “Experts” commented that Congress was an “Ulta Pulta Party” lead by a “Kamzor” PM. Kamzor or not “Singh is still the KING” moreover as TOI says he got a 21 – Ton Salute from the sensex too.

 

But among all the real surprise was the the way the LEFT got LEFT OUT. They were on the path to get hammered some time but no one saw it coming this time around. It hoped to be kingmaker in New Delhi, but instead now faces defeat in the next state Assembly. The Left Front needs to finally stop fighting the Cold War and wake up to the realities of the 21st century. The only sad part of this whole episode is though she turned out to be a true “Left Killer” , Mamta herself is quite a pain. Hopefully the elections have strained her out, if not well then BEWARE !!!

 

So why did I write this article ?? Not that I am a congress supporter. I did not vote for them, for that matter I was shameless enough not to go out and vote even after all the efforts put in by Jagore and other agencies’. I watched TV and slept for most part of the day. But I still write the article for the millions who did vote, whose vote showed that India did not want Shine what it wanted was Sensibility.

 

So for a “Kamzor” PM and his “Sensible Supporters” a lazy but proud countryman says “JAI HO”