Encountering the Dragon, whilst Modernizing without Russia.

 The MOD is finally planning to beef up is arms procurement and plans to spend over 20 billion dollars. Now that would mean more than twice then amount spent since the Kargil war, that too on an annual basis. According to sources we are set to overtake Britain in its defense budget spend within the next 5 years.

 These might be start figures to look at especially since the world seems to be still recovering from the sub prime crisis, there is a recession is place and cost of procurement is as high as ever. But then draw a picture around your mind and picturize, we have Pakistan to our left and Bangladesh to our right. Both have caused enough headaches in the past. But now a new threat has arrived and the DRAGON has made the ELEPHANT dance. China has risen form a cheap goods manufacturer to a military superpower within no time. The dragon has been sharpening its claws and made its intent quite clear by showing keen military interest in Tibet, especially the part’s where our borders meet. Large scale military movement has already started and the clearest picture of the threat comes from the Air Force who plans to have a Sukhoi 30 MKI base at Texpur. China has made its intentions quite clear at sea too planning to have 6 aircraft carriers and nuclear subs all done in a bid to become true blue water navy. It has already started phasing out its older fighter aircrafts for the newer JF 10’s.

 Given the threat around us the MOD has been quite right in upping the defense budgets spend. Our Air Force has aging fighter fleet, mostly a combination of Jaguars, Russian-made MiGs and French Mirage aircraft, and some are up for replacement. Further the IAF’s combat strength is further declining as older airplanes are being phased out. The most recent of them being the MIG 23 ground attack aircraft. From a commissioned strength of almost 40 squadrons we have fallen to 32. The strength is pushing the IAF to constantly keep a vigil on our airspaces.

 The answer to the above situation was to source Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). Except the Sukhoi 30 MKI which has been ordered separately each of the F 16, Euro fighter Typhoon, MIG 35, Saab Gripen, F 18 and the Rafale comes as the latest variant with the most advanced technology available. Lockheed Martin may be a bit ahead than the others in the race as buying from their stable would mean a bundled offer of receiving the much famed F 35. Also in a bid to reduce its dependence on Russia as well as the delays faced in several key acquisitions Moscow seems to be losing out on quite a huge share of the India’s defense procurement. This is clearly visible by the the deals for the Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and six refueling aircraft for the Air Force has gone to Israel for the AWACS and Airbus for the tankers.

 Now delays in deals were like a trademark for India. While in the past such delays were ignored, the bitter experience with the Admiral Gorshkov deal the MOD has reacted strongly. This clearly reflects the urgency sited by the MOD for modernization of the armed forces.

 The urgency is no wonder comes out of the rising fact of China as a military threat. But with increased threat from failing Pakistan a rebellious Bangladesh and an emerging China the urgency comes a little too late.

 To be fair to the MOD however the urgency shown has not been going on a shopping spree to buy arms. The deals have been made in accordance to our strategic requirements. The best deals which have finally been cracked have been the Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) and the P8I maritime patrol aircraft the Indian Navy is on the verge of acquiring. The AWACS move represents a quantum jump in the IAF’s air superiority as it would enable the IAF to look deep into China and Pakistan.  The system can simultaneously track nearly 250 flying objects within a radius of 800 km and also has a 'look-down' capability. India is one of the few countries that has this facility. The Boeing P8I maritime patrol aircraft will give the navy a marked edge in the South East Asia region. India in a bid to better protect its airbases has signed a deal to acquire SPYDER air to air missiles with Israel. Spyder is a static low level, quick reaction missile (LLQRM) to neutralize hostile targets up to 15 km away, and at heights between 20 to 9000 meters.

 But the biggest deal of all was kept for the procurement of the Super Hercules C130J aircraft. . The C 130J model is the latest optimized version of the Hercules C 130, configured for landing and takeoff from a grassy, or dirt patches the size of a football field. It can climb and get out of a threat area faster after dropping or carrying troops or wounded personnel.

 Finally even though all the delays India cannot do without Russia and the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), being jointly developed by Russia and India, will fly by the end of 2009, with serial production starting by 2010. This and the Gorshkov deal along with the newer 30 more carrier borne Mig-29K (Fulcrum-D) fighters for the Indian Navy would give Moscow something to cheer about. They have already bagged quite a sum, double actually from the Gorshkov deal and the MIG came as the icing on the cake. But given the immaculate record of the MIG’s (only the 29’s not the 21’s) the deal is well made. The recent problem of corrosion at the junction of the MiG-29’s fuselage and vertical stabilizer has led to the crash of some Russian air force aircraft, and the entire Russian fleet had been grounded for some time. However, IAF MiG-29s seem unaffected.

 So given the circumstances we are reading ourselves to prove a match for any whether in air or sea but are our ground forces ready ?

 Next time more on the FAMED Arjun Fiasco. Time we see whether the student can oust the mentor. 

The BULL RUN

It’s a deal! Indian Premier League (IPL) once again has the world riveted with its deal-making panache. Cricket is just the icing. Booted from home and hooted out of the next choice, England and Wales, IPL Commissioner Lalit Kumar Modi has managed to rent South Africa for an undisclosed sum for the sequel to his blockbuster maiden show last year.

 59 days later however all the above was blown away. What stood out was the grim determination of 2 thirty plus individuals, determined to avenge the deepest of lows their teams had sunk last time. The finals wasn’t Bangalore vs Deccan, it was about Gilchrist and Kumble, it was about who had the more burning desire to win the match.

 Seems that I am overly praiseful ?? well then picturise this –

 

1. Kumble running wild after bowling Gilchrist. Surely that wasn’t as such a magic ball. A simple googly was all it was. So he bowls Gilly and as ever gracious as he is doesn’t rush as Gilly instead points out to the Challengers den – his motion telling it all.
2. last ball of the match Uthapa as useless as ever swats the ball to long leg and wild celebrations break free. But who is leading the pack – a man who has won 3 world cups, test championships surely he has had better moments than this. I personally have not seem Gilchrist so charged up over the last decade.

 

The IPL now has a aussie connection. Last year it was warne this time gilchrist.  The chargers were almost out of the game when Gilly invoked the bull in their emblem to successfully defend a modest total, beat Royal Challengers Bangalore and win a tournament they had ended up last in the previous season. They bowled with fire, fielded aggressively and sledged and hustled - almost literally - to victory in a final that twisted and turned and lived up to the occasion.

 As I watched Hayden, Warne and Gilly play in this years IPL it was quite easy to see why Australia was such a good team. Talent is something but there is a factor called desire. That is what the above 3 evoked this time especially warne last time around. The best examples of useless talent this time was Robin Utthapa. His trademark walk down and hit over mid on might work at cariappa grounds but not elsewhere.

 Hayden's contribution to Chennai Super Kings has been huge. He was both fluent as well as a bully on crease this time, that was the Hayden we knew. But it was his maturity that won the CSK fans which he showed even when he wasn’t timing the ball,

 Warney's brand of magic was seen in the game against Mumbai, which he said he played only because of his old rivalry with the Little Master, Sachin Tendulkar. Given his nickname of Hollywood, it came as no surprise that there was a happy ending to the story with the great leggie bamboozling the master with his wiles and trapping him in front. (I am an ardent Sachin fan – please do not get me wrong)

 

Many thought Gilly would be bogged down by the weight of captaincy this time. But he struck the ball with the same felicity as he did during his three world cup finals. There is still a lot of cheer left in him. This was clearly seen in his response to the way he lead Deccan’s charge.

 So what makes these Aussies click, I guess a lot of it has to do with the desire to win. Many cricket lovers would walk barefoot to see Sachin bat,.There is no better shot in world cricket than Sachins straight drive.

 But who would you call to save a match. The popular choice would be “The Iceman” Steve Waugh.

 Amidst all however, spare a thought for Anil Kumble. The image of the night came after the last delivery of the game.  Kumble slowly trudged away from Deccan's celebrations with his head bowed and crashed his bat against the ground. Once again, he took upon himself the tough job of bowling to Gilchrist and bowled him with a two-fingered googly. He managed his resources skillfully to restrict Deccan to a score he would have expected his batsmen to chase. Someone unfortunately had to lose.

 

 

Being Shinning to Being Sensible

Finally the verdict is out, Indian voters throw out 80% of all incumbent governments, especially in bad economic times. The global recession has hit India hard - industrial production slumped into negative growth, and exports were down 33% last month. Rural consumer prices are up almost 10%.

 

Given the above circumstances winning by the margin it did Congress probably would have surprised even a few of their own.  While the experts predicted a hung parliament with Mayawati having a king making role, the party held its cool. If we do go back the past 5 years they have remained in power one could see that the seeds of victory were sown long before.

 

One of the main reasons would be the rural prosperity which is basically 70% of our total population. BJP which made Industrial captains, trade unions and information technology may have hogged newspaper headlines, but these are barely visible to the rural millions.

 

Luck matters. The monsoons have been good for five years, helping agriculture average 4.5% growth, the fastest ever. This growth has been spread widely, and not limited to a few areas, as in the early Green Revolution. But I guess if Dhoni can win matches out of sheer luck Congress had its fair share this time around.

 

"A leader never defeats others.....He always wins or tries to win...." BJP's main campaign was to highlight the drawbacks of Congress. And this was visible in all of their campaigns, be it media, internet, public speeches, be it anywhere. Now that is the main drawback of a leader. One should always highlight his own strengths and support it with evidence. Had BJP kept quite when India faced the challenges and rather tried to bring the country to better shape, 2009 election outcome could have been different.

 

From Shining India to Sensible India, is one way of looking at these results. Clearly, the voter was in no mood to opt for either the Right or the Left. It was a clear mandate for continuity, for better or worse. Religion and caste came second and third, when everyone expected both to be the biggest issues. In a way they were - India voted against their exploitation by political parties who were trying their luck by playing those cards. The BJP got nuked! 

 

The “Experts” commented that Congress was an “Ulta Pulta Party” lead by a “Kamzor” PM. Kamzor or not “Singh is still the KING” moreover as TOI says he got a 21 – Ton Salute from the sensex too.

 

But among all the real surprise was the the way the LEFT got LEFT OUT. They were on the path to get hammered some time but no one saw it coming this time around. It hoped to be kingmaker in New Delhi, but instead now faces defeat in the next state Assembly. The Left Front needs to finally stop fighting the Cold War and wake up to the realities of the 21st century. The only sad part of this whole episode is though she turned out to be a true “Left Killer” , Mamta herself is quite a pain. Hopefully the elections have strained her out, if not well then BEWARE !!!

 

So why did I write this article ?? Not that I am a congress supporter. I did not vote for them, for that matter I was shameless enough not to go out and vote even after all the efforts put in by Jagore and other agencies’. I watched TV and slept for most part of the day. But I still write the article for the millions who did vote, whose vote showed that India did not want Shine what it wanted was Sensibility.

 

So for a “Kamzor” PM and his “Sensible Supporters” a lazy but proud countryman says “JAI HO”